Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde50…4f74
politics · 6 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $41 −$13 -32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $16 +$18 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 86% −$2
other 14% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 12h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 87¢ $7 12h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $4 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 86¢ $0 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $6 36h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $1 36h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 87¢ $7 37h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $4 37h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $11 37h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $4 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 81¢ $27 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 74¢ $3 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 23¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.3% -24.3% 20% 20% -22.8%
≤30d 5 -16.3% -24.3% 20% 20% -22.8%
≤90d 5 -16.3% -24.3% 20% 20% -22.8%
all 5 -16.3% -24.3% 20% 20% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 20% -22.8%
10% -31.5% 20% -30.2%
15% -38.1% 20% -36.9%
20% -44.2% 20% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 36 history records