Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde50…b93e crypto 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$572 (-5%) realized −$572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate67%285W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,030
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +26.3% +14.3% 60% 60% -9.6%
≤30d 120 +25.5% +13.5% 52% 52% +4.0%
≤90d 423 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 37% -18.2%
all 423 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 37% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 37% -18.2%
10% -13.8% 30% -26.1%
15% -22.1% 26% -33.2%
20% -29.8% 23% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses285 / 138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)423 / 423
History coverage77d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 423 Trades
no open positions (125 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$37 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$10 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$10 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$11 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $54 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $45 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1148 history records