trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -6.3% | -15.2% | 33% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +12.2% | +1.5% | 43% | 14% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +12.2% | +1.5% | 43% | 14% | -9.5% |
| all | 26 | +4.1% | -5.8% | 42% | 8% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.8% | 8% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -14.8% | 4% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -23.0% | 4% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -30.6% | 4% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 18¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-62%) |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | No | 68¢ | 66¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 24 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 23 | $2 | $0 | -19% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $116 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 06 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 30 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? | Dec 14 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? | Jun 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 09 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 05 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Jun 04 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? | May 30 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | May 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele | May 26 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | May 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | May 23 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $11 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Apr 19 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 19 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | +1% |