Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde55…3fb1 sports 65 markets active 13h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%17W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$10
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$21
sports 31% −$38
crypto 5% −$19
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +2.6% -7.2% 31% 28% -10.2%
≤30d 40 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 28% -10.5%
≤90d 40 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 28% -10.5%
all 65 +16.5% +5.4% 26% 25% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 25% -13.5%
10% -4.6% 23% -21.8%
15% -13.9% 20% -29.3%
20% -22.3% 17% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 48
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage131d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +149%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $177 −$3 -2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $621 −$62 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$14 -68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $173 +$28 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $158 +$36 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$14 +39%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$26 +318%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$16 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$18 +119%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -98%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $79 −$43 -55%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $20 −$8 -42%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $84 −$4 -5%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 28 $1 +$11 +1130%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs Pakistan Feb 21 $10 $0 -4%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 19 $15 +$3 +22%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs West Indies (Game 1) Feb 19 $4 −$1 -20%
T20 World Cup: Ireland vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 17 $3 $0 -3%
T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) Feb 17 $4 +$9 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 13h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 14h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $224 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $222 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $212 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $55 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $55 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $199 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $55 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $104 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records