Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde56…c2f9 sports 830 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,378 (-8%) realized −$6,377 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%361W / 444L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day97.1pace
Fees−$1,169est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$90
14 days−$672
30 days−$8,102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$8,091
other 0% −$27
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -0.9% -10.3% 52% 52% -13.8%
≤30d 805 -9.3% -17.9% 45% 44% -19.0%
≤90d 805 -9.3% -17.9% 45% 44% -19.0%
all 805 -9.3% -17.9% 45% 44% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 44% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 39% -26.8%
15% -32.9% 34% -33.8%
20% -39.5% 30% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$74 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$6,377
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses361 / 444
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$1,169
Open positions27
Markets (closed)805 / 830
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day97.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 805 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Betclic Apogee Esports 28¢ 58¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+109%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 45¢ 42¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 60¢ 60¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 55¢ 55¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Betclic Apogee Esports 20¢ 28¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 62¢ 64¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 60¢ 62¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 36¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) G2 Ares 58¢ 50¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 34¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) FUT Esports 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner RUSTEC 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner CYBERSHOKE Esports 44¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) RUSTEC 71¢ 51¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) ex-RUBY 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) Betclic Apogee Esports 50¢ 65¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) CYBERSHOKE Esports 63¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 20¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-51%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs G2 Ares 33¢ 10¢ $9 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 42¢ 43¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 50¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$3 -30%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$4 -31%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $26 +$21 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 +$15 +61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$12 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $19 +$24 +124%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $22 +$25 +111%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$12 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $34 +$67 +197%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $2 +$3 +160%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$12 +96%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$1 +23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 14 $16 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$16 +160%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $8 +$12 +153%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $2 3m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $9 9m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $13 9m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $6 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 1h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY G2 Ares 57¢ $3 1h
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $11 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $9 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $13 5h
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY ex-RUBY 38¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 20¢ $2 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $3 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $9 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $14 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $47 8h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 50¢ $3 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $41 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $3 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 62¢ $3 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $34 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $3 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $3 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $9 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $13 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $3 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $9 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $13 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.25 · official $255.25 (match) · 3500 history records