Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde57…7499 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate68%41W / 19L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$334
14 days+$294
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$162
other 42% +$204
sports 10% −$38
world 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -3.0% -12.3% 72% 56% -2.5%
≤30d 60 -4.8% -13.8% 68% 55% -4.0%
≤90d 60 -4.8% -13.8% 68% 55% -4.0%
all 60 -4.8% -13.8% 68% 55% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 55% -4.0%
10% -22.1% 42% -13.2%
15% -29.6% 27% -21.5%
20% -36.5% 13% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$51 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses41 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage9d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $110 +$15 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$84 +42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 −$83 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $333 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $413 +$357 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $227 +$29 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$43 -80%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $163 +$47 +29%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 −$122 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$26 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $241 +$5 +2%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$36 +36%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 +$25 +37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 3h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $110 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $18 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $283 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records