Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DE 0xde5a…1bb5 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$137 (+13%) realized +$138 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$112
sports 19% +$21
crypto 5% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +67.2% +51.2% 100% 100% +32.3%
≤30d 4 +67.2% +51.2% 100% 100% +32.3%
≤90d 4 +67.2% +51.2% 100% 100% +32.3%
all 4 +67.2% +51.2% 100% 100% +32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.2% 100% +32.3%
10% +36.8% 75% +19.7%
15% +23.6% 75% +8.1%
20% +11.4% 75% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$86 +57%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 21 $51 +$76 +149%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.15 · official $609.15 · 16 history records