Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DE 0xde5d…d818 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$107 (+33%) realized +$107 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+36.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+51.0%	+36.6%	65%	65%	+13.6%
≤30d	20	+51.0%	+36.6%	65%	65%	+13.6%
≤90d	20	+51.0%	+36.6%	65%	65%	+13.6%
all	20	+51.0%	+36.6%	65%	65%	+13.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.6%	65%	+13.6%
10%	+23.6%	65%	+2.7%
15%	+11.6%	55%	-7.2%
20%	+0.7%	55%	-16.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +104% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$16

Realized+$107

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Algeria	39¢	40¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$10	+$6	+60%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$39	−$28	-73%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 23	$29	+$8	+27%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$15	−$14	-91%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-98%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)	Jun 22	$43	+$11	+26%
Japan leading at halftime?	Jun 21	$9	+$9	+97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$8	+$18	+238%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$25	−$25	-99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$13	+$12	+90%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 19	$3	−$2	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5)	Jun 19	$6	+$31	+550%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$30	+$24	+79%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury	Jun 18	$13	+$7	+52%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5	Jun 18	$20	+$21	+105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$7	+$16	+226%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$6	+$4	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	39¢	$6	32m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	33m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	62¢	$10	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	22¢	$10	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	80¢	$39	1h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	100¢	$37	2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	5¢	$1	2h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	78¢	$29	7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	53¢	$15	7h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$5	7h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5	BUY Over	37¢	$5	7h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)	BUY New Zealand	79¢	$43	24h
Japan leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	44h
Japan leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	50¢	$9	2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	75¢	$25	2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5	BUY Over	29¢	$8	2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	52¢	$13	3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	18¢	$3	3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	58¢	$10	3d
Spread: Canada (-3.5)	BUY Canada	15¢	$6	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$15	4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$30	4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Las Vegas Aces	100¢	$20	4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury	BUY Las Vegas Aces	65¢	$13	5d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5	BUY Over	48¢	$20	5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY No	60¢	$6	5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$7	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.78 · official $15.78 (match) · 38 history records