Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xde60…63c5 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$60 (+14%) realized +$63 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$104
other 47% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.4% +26.1% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤30d 6 +39.4% +26.1% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤90d 6 +39.4% +26.1% 50% 50% +3.5%
all 6 +39.4% +26.1% 50% 50% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.1% 50% +3.5%
10% +14.1% 50% -6.4%
15% +3.0% 50% -15.4%
20% -7.1% 33% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$64 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 +$149 +365%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$50 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $51 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $41 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $41 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.12 · official $47.12 (match) · 13 history records