Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde64…2541 crypto 367 markets active 22h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%231W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$133
14 days−$101
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$87
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -7.2% -16.0% 64% 36% -14.1%
≤30d 268 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 37% -13.4%
≤90d 296 -1.7% -11.1% 59% 35% -13.5%
all 367 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 38% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 38% -12.1%
10% -20.3% 21% -20.5%
15% -28.0% 14% -28.2%
20% -35.1% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses231 / 136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)367 / 367
History coverage126d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 367 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $91 −$57 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$16 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$42 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $152 −$26 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$38 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $42 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $41 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 909 history records