Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde65…b502 other 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$153 (-2%) realized −$219 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%37W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$239
14 days−$6
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$85
sports 25% −$52
crypto 4% −$42
tech 3% −$6
world 3% −$66
politics 2% +$8
finance 2% −$62
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -18.0% -25.8% 44% 38% -22.7%
≤30d 22 -11.1% -19.6% 36% 32% -16.1%
≤90d 97 -11.0% -19.5% 38% 35% -13.6%
all 97 -11.0% -19.5% 38% 35% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 35% -13.6%
10% -27.2% 33% -21.8%
15% -34.2% 25% -29.4%
20% -40.7% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$49 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 60
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 103
History coverage82d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $98 $119 +$21 (+22%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $58 $106 +$48 (+83%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $89 $85 −$4 (-4%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 +$32 +83%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $74 +$4 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 −$48 -48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 +$57 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $137 −$134 -98%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $163 −$17 -10%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $59 −$3 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $57 +$65 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $50 +$21 +42%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $263 −$6 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $201 +$76 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100 −$99 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $140 +$232 +166%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $26 −$2 -9%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $205 −$102 -50%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $165 −$161 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $111 −$5 -4%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $138 end of April? Apr 30 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $142 end of April? Apr 30 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 30 $58 +$12 +21%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $111 +$72 +65%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $260 −$255 -98%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Apr 29 $57 −$38 -67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 29 $96 −$24 -25%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Apr 29 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $8 $0 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $151 +$217 +143%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $55 +$51 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $29 +$13 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $25 +$7 +29%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $51 +$33 +65%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $50 +$131 +262%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $52 +$18 +34%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-02-08? Apr 23 $50 +$102 +204%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $55 +$15 +27%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 13m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 13m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $71 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $39 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $39 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $78 2h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 44h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $49 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 4¢ $75 44h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 44h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 44¢ $56 46h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 65¢ $56 46h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $86 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $86 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $56 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 49¢ $56 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $59 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $59 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $41 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 18¢ $72 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $57 3d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL No 100¢ $239 3d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.27 · official $330.27 (match) · 276 history records