Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DE 0xde67…c144 weather 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$214 (+5%) realized +$184 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%82W / 86L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day53.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$2
14 days+$132
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% +$90
crypto 16% +$76
sports 12% −$2
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 30% -9.9%
≤30d 168 +6.4% -3.8% 49% 37% -6.7%
≤90d 168 +6.4% -3.8% 49% 37% -6.7%
all 168 +6.4% -3.8% 49% 37% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 37% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 28% -15.6%
15% -21.4% 19% -23.8%
20% -29.1% 15% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses82 / 86
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)168 / 174
History coverage13d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Yes 59¢ 61¢ $136 $140 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 50¢ $26 $50 +$23 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $31 $40 +$9 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $67 −$17 -26%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 −$11 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 −$11 -84%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 17 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $50 $0 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $110 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $90 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $158 +$18 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $219 +$36 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 +$24 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$25 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $194 +$46 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $274 +$17 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 −$20 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $66 +$25 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $108 −$1 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $18 −$2 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$10 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 −$16 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $134 +$17 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$6 +22%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$5 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 29m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 47m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.80 · official $228.87 (match) · 780 history records