Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xde69…be57 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$307 (+8%) realized +$320 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$20
sports 18% +$204
weather 15% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.8% -17.4% 43% 29% -1.0%
≤30d 7 -8.8% -17.4% 43% 29% -1.0%
≤90d 7 -8.8% -17.4% 43% 29% -1.0%
all 7 -8.8% -17.4% 43% 29% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 29% -1.0%
10% -25.3% 14% -10.5%
15% -32.6% 0% -19.1%
20% -39.2% 0% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$10 · ×10.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.2 per $1 lost it wins $8.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$876
Realized+$320
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $489 $480 −$9 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $301 −$7 -2%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $705 +$204 +29%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $701 −$10 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $602 +$72 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $602 +$48 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $294 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $294 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $203 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $203 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $203 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $705 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 93¢ $691 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $200 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 34¢ $95 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $501 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $102 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $602 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $650 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $602 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $876.32 · official $876.32 (match) · 19 history records