Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde6a…ac01 politics 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$14
economics 12% −$2
sports 2% −$1
other 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 82 -1.8% -11.1% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage630d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $52 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $53 $0 -1%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Jan 30 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bam Adebayo win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will America ban Zyn in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Binance list $DEGEN in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Porto win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Zircuit airdrop in 2024? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atlanta United win the 2024 MLS Cup? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win the AFC East? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 17 $0 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 15h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 19d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $52 32d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 32d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 35d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 36d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 40d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $53 62d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $15 62d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 64d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 64d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 73d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 74d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 89d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 90d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $53 94d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $53 95d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $53 95d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $53 96d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 97d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 98d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 101d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 101d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 102d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 102d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records