Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde6c…09d0 crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$198 (-5%) realized −$179 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%94W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$226
14 days−$226
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$99
other 29% −$295
sports 13% +$80
world 1% −$1
finance 0% −$6
economics 0% −$6
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -10.9% -19.4% 41% 37% -19.4%
≤30d 68 -10.9% -19.4% 41% 37% -19.4%
≤90d 197 -8.9% -17.6% 48% 40% -17.5%
all 197 -8.9% -17.6% 48% 40% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 40% -17.5%
10% -25.5% 30% -25.4%
15% -32.7% 23% -32.6%
20% -39.3% 17% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses94 / 103
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)197 / 202
History coverage47d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots Yes 44¢ 100¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+127%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 94¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+57%)
Noni Madueke: 2+ shots Yes 59¢ 50¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $40 $7 −$33 (-83%)
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$23 -21%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -15%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $28 +$28 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 +$21 +82%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$15 -30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 −$27 -47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 −$36 -29%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$52 +503%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$23 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$76 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$40 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 39m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 42m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 44m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 54m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $26 59m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $12 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $37 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
Noni Madueke: 2+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2h
Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $15 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $10 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $56 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 29h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.71 · official $63.86 · 567 history records