Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xde6e…eeea sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$366 (+16%) realized +$367 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 45L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$448
14 days+$367
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$484
other 18% −$26
world 3% −$66
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +27.6% +15.5% 50% 50% +23.8%
≤30d 70 +20.0% +8.6% 46% 46% +9.5%
≤90d 70 +20.0% +8.6% 46% 46% +9.5%
all 85 +17.6% +6.4% 47% 46% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 46% +8.4%
10% -3.8% 46% -2.0%
15% -13.1% 46% -11.4%
20% -21.6% 44% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$17 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$367
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 45
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 102
History coverage148d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$40 +79%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$44 +86%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 +$37 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$45 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$2 -4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 +$166 +325%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 +$47 +93%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $15 +$11 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 +$51 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$47 +93%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $15 −$1 -6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $31 +$72 +235%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$45 +291%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Unite Jun 20 $6 +$21 +336%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$31 +202%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$17 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$11 +73%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$13 +87%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$1 -5%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$21 +216%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$25 +165%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$18 +874%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$25 +165%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$20 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$13 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 +$10 +65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals AND Haris Tabaković: 1+ goals AND Mohammed Muntar BUY 3¢ $5 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Breel Embolo: 1+ goa BUY 2¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY 11¢ $21 14h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $51 15h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $51 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $51 38h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 40h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $48 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 40h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 40h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $102 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $14 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $15 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $25 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 96¢ $103 3d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.40 · official $159.40 · 200 history records