Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde70…615f sports 146 markets active 3h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$335 (+8%) realized +$335 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%53W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days−$21
14 days+$74
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$602
crypto 31% −$251
other 8% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -11.0% -19.5% 30% 30% -9.8%
≤30d 146 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 36% -5.4%
≤90d 146 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 36% -5.4%
all 146 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 36% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 36% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 34% -14.5%
15% -26.0% 32% -22.8%
20% -33.3% 32% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$22 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$335
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses53 / 93
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage15d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $38 +$35 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 +$49 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $40 +$33 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 −$7 -47%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$21 +68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $35 +$24 +70%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 +$57 +139%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $23 +$13 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $28 +$40 +139%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $29 +$79 +272%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$54 +82%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $140 −$137 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$39 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $84 +$110 +131%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 +$39 +76%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $9 +$16 +170%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $107 +$219 +204%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$53 +181%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$19 +95%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$66 +64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$95 -93%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $87 −$86 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $91 +$87 +95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $20 +$68 +332%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 +$90 +871%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $29 +$35 +121%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$40 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $38 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $97 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $48 4h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $22 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $50 5h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 38¢ $18 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 38¢ $54 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $40 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $9 7h
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $8 8h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 14¢ $8 8h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $14 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $36 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $51 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $35 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $29 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $35 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 10h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $36 10h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $23 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $41 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 12h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $49 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records