Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde76…7d17 sports 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,060 (-1%) realized −$2,446 · open +$386
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%159W / 89L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,487per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$2,595est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4,504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,096
7 days+$5,816
14 days−$3,192
30 days+$4,637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$7,535
other 38% +$3,640
world 1% +$99
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.0% -6.8% 77% 53% -1.0%
≤30d 114 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 46% -7.4%
≤90d 248 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 42% -10.6%
all 248 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 42% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 42% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 32% -19.1%
15% -27.1% 23% -26.9%
20% -34.3% 15% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$775 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$4,504
Realized−$2,446
Unrealized+$386
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses159 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2,595
Open positions2
Markets (closed)248 / 250
History coverage194d
Avg bet$1,487
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $2,622 $2,606 −$16 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 65¢ 82¢ $1,495 $1,898 +$402 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $1,840 +$81 +4%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,601 +$699 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,669 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3,806 +$989 +26%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3,996 +$1,404 +35%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5,016 +$684 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 24 $1,029 +$239 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $617 −$400 -65%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,013 +$547 +14%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $809 −$31 -4%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $401 +$7 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kayla Cross vs Mary Stoiana Jun 23 $32 +$1 +2%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $850 −$251 -30%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,550 +$207 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $941 +$297 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3,870 +$278 +7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $332 −$332 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,998 +$222 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,016 +$99 +2%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $931 +$931 +100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $691 +$8 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $323 +$80 +25%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $829 +$382 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,524 +$671 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,006 +$444 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,172 +$517 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $320 +$51 +16%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,449 −$1,446 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,980 +$758 +19%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Eikeri/Gleason vs Mertens/Zhang Jun 19 $995 −$989 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,998 −$145 -4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,999 +$529 +26%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 18 $604 +$111 +18%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,643 −$2,643 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,870 +$490 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $1,347 +$498 +37%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $2,002 +$57 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,022 +$378 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $635 +$59 +9%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $191 −$28 -15%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4,700 +$1,221 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,074 −$4,074 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,720 +$3,334 +194%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,219 +$146 +4%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1,495 +$94 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $440 −$440 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $440 +$28 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $2,638 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 65¢ $1,495 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 88¢ $1,920 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 84¢ $1,840 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 11h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 11h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 11h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,393 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 56¢ $2,669 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $1,004 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $9 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $63 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $1,216 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $250 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $55 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $73 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $4,795 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $3,806 19h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3,996 38h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $5,016 44h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones SELL Jack Draper 100¢ $1,268 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Draper 82¢ $349 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Draper 80¢ $152 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 22¢ $9 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 22¢ $4 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 22¢ $3 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 22¢ $2 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 22¢ $2 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 22¢ $7 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 22¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,503.50 · official $4,503.50 (match) · 1821 history records