Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DE 0xde77…cb68 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$179 (-47%) realized −$164 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -96% what you keep after slip
Net edge-96%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$125
crypto 29% −$110
sports 11% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-96.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -93.0% -93.6% 0% 0% -88.7%
≤30d 3 -93.0% -93.6% 0% 0% -88.7%
≤90d 3 -93.0% -93.6% 0% 0% -88.7%
all 5 -95.8% -96.2% 0% 0% -93.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -96.2% 0% -93.1%
10% -96.5% 0% -93.7%
15% -96.9% 0% -94.3%
20% -97.2% 0% -94.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -96% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$52 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage107d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $97 $83 −$15 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$81 -79%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 33m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 34m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 11h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $58 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.75 · official $82.75 (match) · 10 history records