Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xde7b…41fc sports 47 markets active 2d ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$354 (+5%) realized +$355 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$13
other 16% +$32
sports 11% +$331
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.3% -4.7% 11% 11% -9.1%
≤30d 9 +5.3% -4.7% 11% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 9 +5.3% -4.7% 11% 11% -9.1%
all 46 +10.5% -0.0% 28% 26% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 26% -4.7%
10% -9.6% 26% -13.8%
15% -18.3% 26% -22.1%
20% -26.3% 24% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$9 · ×5.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$1,099
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage623d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,100 $1,099 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +49%
Hawks vs. Pacers Oct 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Oct 31 $8 +$6 +72%
Guardians vs. Tigers Sep 17 $19 +$24 +127%
Chargers vs. Raiders Sep 16 $9 +$5 +56%
Tigers vs. White Sox Sep 11 $9 +$7 +79%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $4 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 01 $2 $0 -6%
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Dec 30 $101 +$109 +108%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $102 +$114 +111%
South Florida vs. San José State Dec 26 $101 +$139 +138%
Will Pearse Doherty be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Dec 24 $3 −$2 -67%
Blues vs. Canucks Dec 11 $214 −$214 -100%
Bulls vs. Spurs Dec 10 $96 +$117 +122%
Lakers vs. Heat Dec 05 $54 +$43 +79%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $30 +$20 +65%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $49 −$49 -100%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $35 +$23 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,100 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $450 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $399 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $732 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $400 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $733 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $477 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $654 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $478 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $655 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 5d
Hawks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 45¢ $11 233d
Magic vs. Hornets BUY Magic 58¢ $8 234d
Guardians vs. Tigers BUY Guardians 44¢ $19 278d
Chargers vs. Raiders BUY Chargers 64¢ $9 279d
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY Tigers 56¢ $9 312d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 363d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $5 404d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $5 404d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 405d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 409d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 409d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,099.45 · official $1,099.45 (match) · 95 history records