Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde7b…5f4b
world · 86 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$1,744,790 -84%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,997,183 · open +$167,757
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$904,584
Realized−$1,997,183
Unrealized+$167,757
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses25 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$6,797
Open positions50
Markets (closed)211 / 86
History coverage27d
Avg bet$24,270
Trades / day123.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 50 History 211 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,350,230
7 days−$1,350,230
14 days−$1,731,172
30 days−$1,997,183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $143,636 $205,432 +$61,795 (+43%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 41¢ 88¢ $44,242 $93,707 +$49,465 (+112%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 74¢ 99¢ $61,514 $81,993 +$20,479 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $76,563 $70,846 −$5,716 (-7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 60¢ 99¢ $38,576 $63,531 +$24,955 (+65%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 60¢ 64¢ $59,018 $63,299 +$4,280 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $45,251 $58,444 +$13,193 (+29%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 50¢ 89¢ $18,070 $31,829 +$13,759 (+76%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $27,991 $29,818 +$1,827 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 58¢ 99¢ $15,114 $25,854 +$10,740 (+71%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $24,980 $25,713 +$733 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 46¢ 44¢ $23,000 $22,250 −$750 (-3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $24,407 $22,162 −$2,245 (-9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $23,000 $21,750 −$1,250 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 82¢ $15,202 $18,407 +$3,205 (+21%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 28¢ 46¢ $5,388 $9,044 +$3,656 (+68%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 59¢ 100¢ $4,852 $8,254 +$3,402 (+70%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $6,080 $6,782 +$702 (+12%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 42¢ 44¢ $5,638 $5,839 +$201 (+4%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 42¢ 32¢ $6,179 $4,635 −$1,545 (-25%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $4,166 $4,112 −$54 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 60¢ $2,233 $3,996 +$1,763 (+79%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 38¢ 53¢ $2,673 $3,734 +$1,061 (+40%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $3,292 $2,855 −$437 (-13%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 88¢ 94¢ $2,663 $2,854 +$191 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-10.5) Jun 12 $10,200 −$10,200 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 147.5 Jun 12 $4,975 −$4,975 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Jun 12 $1,167 −$1,167 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Jun 12 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 12 $13,453 −$13,453 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 12 $2,954 −$2,255 -76%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 12 $22,497 −$22,497 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Jun 12 $3,974 −$3,974 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $27,776 −$27,776 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jun 12 $15,113 −$15,113 -100%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Jun 12 $320 −$320 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $6,342 −$6,342 -100%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5) Jun 12 $9,956 −$9,956 -100%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? Jun 12 $243 −$243 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Jun 12 $766 −$766 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 12 $1,156 −$1,156 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 12 $23,260 −$23,260 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Jun 12 $11,326 −$11,326 -100%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4,613 +$2,787 +60%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Jun 12 $1,492 −$1,492 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Jun 12 $15,327 −$4,923 -32%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 12 $485 −$485 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Jun 12 $6,220 −$6,220 -100%
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer? Jun 12 $8,620 −$8,620 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 12 $66,808 −$66,808 -100%
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) Jun 12 $14,697 −$14,697 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 12 $21,630 −$21,630 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Jun 12 $4,445 −$11,820 -266%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 12 $18,978 −$18,978 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $808 −$808 -100%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $5,516 +$7,966 +144%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 150.5 Jun 12 $11,840 −$11,840 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $2,173 −$2,173 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $51,257 −$58,782 -115%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $1,036 −$1,036 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Jun 12 $595 −$595 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $739 −$739 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Jun 12 $28,876 −$28,876 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Jun 12 $6,526 −$6,526 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 12 $8,770 −$8,770 -100%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $201 −$201 -100%
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Jun 12 $12,722 −$12,722 -100%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $51 +$281 +548%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $3 +$1,346 +39353%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% −$609,648
crypto 18% +$71,066
sports 16% −$242,455
other 9% +$90,549
politics 9% +$224,683
finance 0% −$13,391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,050 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,060 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,070 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $580 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $279 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $84 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-63.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -77.4% -79.5% 3% 3% -94.8%
≤30d 211 -59.4% -63.3% 12% 12% -63.1%
≤90d 211 -59.4% -63.3% 12% 12% -63.1%
all 211 -59.4% -63.3% 12% 12% -63.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover123.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.3% 12% -63.1%
10% -66.8% 11% -66.7%
15% ← realistic here -70.0% 9% -69.9%
20% -72.9% 8% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904,583.71 · official $904,583.72 (match) · 3500 history records