Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde81…ea79 crypto 936 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%510W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day96.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$103
14 days−$109
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 29% -31.0%
≤30d 967 -13.9% -22.1% 49% 33% -16.8%
≤90d 1013 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 33% -16.1%
all 1013 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 33% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 33% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 28% -24.1%
15% -35.6% 24% -31.5%
20% -41.9% 21% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses510 / 503
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1013 / 936
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day96.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1013 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 56¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 36¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 435 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.19 · official $0.65 · 3500 history records