Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xde83…cb27 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+10%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$12
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$24
other 46% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 40% -1.5%
≤30d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 33% -1.5%
≤90d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 33% -1.5%
all 6 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 33% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 33% -1.5%
10% -18.6% 33% -10.9%
15% -26.5% 33% -19.5%
20% -33.7% 17% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$23 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage10d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $26 +$65 +248%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $39 +$15 +40%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $35 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 18h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 30h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $54 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $39 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $39 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.02 · official $49.02 (match) · 21 history records