Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DE 0xde84…aaf2 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$13
politics 28% −$9
economics 4% −$2
sports 4% −$5
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 +0.9% -8.7% 12% 10% -9.6%
all 112 +0.9% -8.7% 12% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 10% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 10% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 8% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage83d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $117 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 04 $372 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $350 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $299 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $594 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $620 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $305 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $314 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $293 $0 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $304 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $302 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $289 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $304 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $292 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $302 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 20 $304 $0 +0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $315 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $295 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $318 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $298 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $306 $0 -0%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $304 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $314 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 4h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $62 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $69 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $69 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 16d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $60 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $60 18d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $85 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $44 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $45 23d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $116 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.42 · official $116.42 (match) · 292 history records