Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DE 0xde86…f015 sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$470 (+23%) realized +$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$150
14 days+$473
30 days+$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$395
other 22% +$66
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -17.7% -25.5% 38% 36% +0.9%
≤30d 56 -18.6% -26.4% 38% 36% +11.2%
≤90d 56 -18.6% -26.4% 38% 36% +11.2%
all 56 -18.6% -26.4% 38% 36% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 36% +11.2%
10% -33.4% 34% +0.6%
15% -39.9% 30% -9.1%
20% -45.8% 21% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$8 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage10d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $358 +$92 +26%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$12 -59%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 +$14 +468%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$14 +71%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$19 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$29 +58%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $38 −$18 -48%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -23%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 +$17 +82%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +37%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $35 +$22 +64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 −$3 -23%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $251 +$27 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $201 +$185 +92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$37 -73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $119 −$6 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $450 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $358 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $76 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $70 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $80 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 25¢ $20 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $38 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records