Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DE 0xde8a…a3fc weather 474 markets active 0h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,374 (+10%) realized +$1,218 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%224W / 244L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$156
14 days+$330
30 days+$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% +$1,673
crypto 6% −$516
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +40.7% +27.3% 44% 34% +1.7%
≤30d 113 +27.1% +15.0% 53% 42% +1.2%
≤90d 414 +16.2% +5.1% 48% 41% -0.0%
all 468 +13.7% +2.9% 48% 39% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 39% -1.6%
10% -7.0% 26% -11.0%
15% -16.0% 22% -19.6%
20% -24.2% 18% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$1,218
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses224 / 244
Open positions6
Markets (closed)468 / 474
History coverage188d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+23%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 14? Yes 1¢ 33¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+2257%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 61¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on May 3? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 28? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $181 −$7 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $120 −$50 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$18 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 12 $79 +$21 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $114 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$51 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $36 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $60 −$18 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$6 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 09 $3 −$2 -55%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$15 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $33 −$26 -78%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 08 $6 +$36 +585%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $53 +$29 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $6 +$104 +1662%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 08 $175 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $30 +$11 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $19 −$8 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 07 $8 +$12 +152%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 06 $40 −$31 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $113 +$22 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $28 +$10 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 05 $4 +$10 +236%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 05 $107 +$44 +42%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 05 $3 −$2 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $142 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 05 $61 +$12 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $23 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL Yes 20¢ $10 20m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 9¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $11 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 48m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $23 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $23 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $111 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 90¢ $41 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 90¢ $52 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 57¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $51 11h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 14¢ $7 16h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 47¢ $13 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 50¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 55¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 51¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 51¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 54¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 52¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 52¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.16 · official $36.49 · 1873 history records