Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
DE 0xde8a…9cdb crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+25%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.3% +1.6% 78% 78% +12.9%
≤30d 9 +12.3% +1.6% 78% 78% +12.9%
≤90d 9 +12.3% +1.6% 78% 78% +12.9%
all 9 +12.3% +1.6% 78% 78% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 78% +12.9%
10% -8.2% 44% +2.1%
15% -17.0% 44% -7.8%
20% -25.2% 44% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records