Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xde8f…87e9 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$917 (-42%) realized −$916 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$835
sports 14% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -40.7% -46.4% 33% 33% -41.6%
≤30d 6 -40.7% -46.4% 33% 33% -41.6%
≤90d 6 -40.7% -46.4% 33% 33% -41.6%
all 6 -40.7% -46.4% 33% 33% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 33% -41.6%
10% -51.5% 33% -47.2%
15% -56.2% 33% -52.3%
20% -60.5% 33% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$289 vs −$329 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$916
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $596 +$436 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $984 −$974 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $300 −$297 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $172 +$141 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $100 37m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $34 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $596 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $984 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $300 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $12 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $313 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $172 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.27 · official $97.27 (match) · 9 history records