Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xde98…ef41 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%123W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
sports 36% +$43
crypto 10% −$25
tech 2% +$6
world 2% +$2
finance 2% −$4
politics 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +146.3% +122.9% 53% 53% +59.4%
≤30d 16 +137.5% +114.9% 56% 50% +42.3%
≤90d 35 +37.0% +24.0% 43% 40% +5.4%
all 242 -1.1% -10.6% 51% 48% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 48% -8.6%
10% -19.1% 44% -17.3%
15% -26.9% 36% -25.3%
20% -34.1% 29% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses123 / 119
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)242 / 252
History coverage333d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +217%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +174%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1666%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 12 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 03 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +18%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $7 +$4 +54%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$5 +50%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $1 $0 -7%
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-14? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $2 +$2 +87%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $2 +$1 +37%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $2 +$1 +54%
Blackhawks vs. Utah Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 28 $2 +$2 +89%
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 28 $2 $0 -10%
Kings vs. Blue Jackets Feb 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? Feb 22 $2 $0 -15%
Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Men's Round of 16 - Czechia vs. Denmark Feb 18 $2 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 22h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 22h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $3 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United SELL 7¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 21¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 43¢ $1 5d
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.78 · official $7.78 (match) · 433 history records