Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde98…70d9 world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$57
other 24% +$21
sports 18% −$87
politics 5% +$1
crypto 1% −$3
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +3.1% -6.8% 38% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 48 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 2% -9.7%
all 91 +0.6% -8.9% 37% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 57
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage488d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $120 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $103 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $102 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $200 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $101 +$4 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $316 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $112 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $5 +$6 +120%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $239 +$11 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $303 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $192 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $40 −$2 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $369 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $119 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $159 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $191 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $99 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $274 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $86 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $96 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $88 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $599 −$85 -14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $483 +$38 +8%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1,167 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $459 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $393 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $209 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1,108 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $89 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $115 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $104 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $104 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $115 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $115 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $104 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $23 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $79 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $57 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $104 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $114 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $114 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $81 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $23 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $102 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $60 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $42 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $57 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $48 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $66 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $39 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $101 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $48 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records