Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde99…b243 crypto 2189 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,962 (-76%) realized −$2,949 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate13%330W / 2196L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day87.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$149
other 17% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-61.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 -93.3% -94.0% 6% 2% -16.0%
≤30d 679 -54.3% -58.6% 41% 5% -8.4%
≤90d 2526 -57.4% -61.4% 13% 3% -11.2%
all 2526 -57.4% -61.4% 13% 3% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.4% 3% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -65.1% 3% -19.7%
15% -68.5% 3% -27.4%
20% -71.6% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$2,949
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses330 / 2196
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2526 / 2189
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 99¢ 72¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $29 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.38 · official $66.38 (match) · 3500 history records