Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde9d…5176 crypto 404 markets active 22h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate77%309W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$22
politics 17% −$2
other 13% +$7
sports 12% −$10
world 6% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.2% -16.9% 67% 67% +0.6%
≤30d 42 -13.2% -21.5% 71% 31% -14.1%
≤90d 189 -3.4% -12.6% 91% 8% -10.6%
all 401 -2.2% -11.5% 77% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 5% -9.9%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses309 / 92
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)401 / 404
History coverage142d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 40¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +24%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$2 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$5 +49%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $9 +$7 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 07 $8 +$7 +85%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 +$3 +50%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 Jun 05 $15 +$9 +60%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Jun 03 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $15 +$1 +4%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Fredrikstad FK vs. IK Start: O/U 5.5 May 29 $7 −$5 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3AM ET May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 10¢ $1 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 72¢ $10 23h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $5 39h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $6 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 75¢ $7 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 83¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 85¢ $6 7d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 70¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 60¢ $5 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ $10 8d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $9 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $5 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 9d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $8 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 89¢ $5 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 86¢ $8 10d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 12d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Knicks 66¢ $5 12d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 13d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 13d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 13d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 13d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 73¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.86 · official $13.86 (match) · 1737 history records