Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdea0…9f7a sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days−$300
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$201
other 10% −$10
world 4% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.9% -17.5% 67% 67% +1.6%
≤30d 12 -28.5% -35.3% 50% 50% -42.4%
≤90d 27 -18.7% -26.4% 41% 41% -33.0%
all 80 -15.9% -23.9% 42% 42% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 42% -9.9%
10% -31.2% 40% -18.5%
15% -37.8% 34% -26.4%
20% -43.9% 30% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$41 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage524d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $51 +$26 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $151 +$32 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $112 −$111 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $54 −$53 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $17 +$13 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $15 +$9 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Artur Minev win by KO or TKO? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 14 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$45 +442%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $182 +$95 +52%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 08 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $16 −$16 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $35 +$28 +79%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 14 $10 +$22 +216%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 14 $30 +$14 +48%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? Apr 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Preli Feb 08 $333 +$56 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura (Women's Flyweight, Preli Feb 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO? Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $10 +$21 +212%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $20 +$10 +51%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? Nov 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $100 +$100 +100%
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $20 +$11 +56%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $110 −$110 -100%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $30 −$10 -33%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 31 $139 −$49 -35%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Volkov vs. Almeida Oct 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bautista vs. Nurmagomedov Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Vera vs. Zahabi Oct 19 $50 −$7 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, SELL Daniil Donchenko 100¢ $183 52m
Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 39¢ $31 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Daniil Donchenko 82¢ $151 2h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $112 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $20 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $101 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $17 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $33 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $201 12d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes $3 19d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $15 20d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Iwo Baraniewski 79¢ $50 20d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Yuneisy Duben 30¢ $5 20d
Will Artur Minev win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 41d
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Artur Minev 38¢ $102 43d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley $1 48d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 23¢ $10 48d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) BUY Marco Tulio 64¢ $10 49d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 60¢ $20 49d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Yaroslav Amosov 65¢ $182 51d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 40¢ $10 51d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $10 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 51d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 73d
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Mateusz Gamrot 67¢ $30 76d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Paulo Costa 31¢ $10 76d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 50¢ $51 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records