Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xdea0…ef9d crypto 1776 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate86%1523W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day69.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days+$1
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -2.4% -11.7% 83% 9% -5.7%
≤30d 1776 -1.5% -10.8% 86% 37% -10.6%
≤90d 1776 -1.5% -10.8% 86% 37% -10.6%
all 1776 -1.5% -10.8% 86% 37% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 37% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 8% -19.1%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1523 / 253
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1776 / 1776
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day69.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1776 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.90 · official $2.20 · 3500 history records