Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DE 0xdea1…f214 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+8%) realized +$29 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$36
other 7% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 82% 36% +2.1%
≤30d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 82% 36% +2.1%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 82% 36% +2.1%
all 11 +1.1% -8.5% 82% 36% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 36% +2.1%
10% -17.3% 18% -7.6%
15% -25.3% 18% -16.6%
20% -32.6% 18% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.38 per $1 lost it wins $8.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $53 $58 +$5 (+10%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $47 +$4 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $43 +$3 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 +$3 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $34 +$4 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$7 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $17 +$13 +78%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 91¢ $53 41m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 55m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $47 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $46 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $43 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $40 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $38 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $4 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $34 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $31 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $29 46h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $7 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.57 · official $58.21 · 30 history records