Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xdea2…a81e crypto 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$228 (-0%) realized −$224 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%368W / 43L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$3,971per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,815
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +0.2% -9.3% 82% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 181 -0.5% -10.0% 92% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 411 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.3%
all 411 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$3,957) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$193 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$8,328
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses368 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)411 / 419
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$3,971
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,996 $1,997 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,998 $1,997 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,998 $1,994 −$4 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $767 $767 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? No 98¢ 98¢ $489 $488 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $456 $457 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $455 $454 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $173 $173 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $193 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $3,508 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $980 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,083 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,729 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,295 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,060 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? Jun 26 $998 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,009 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? Jun 26 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,406 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $991 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,992 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,216 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,822 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $299 +$10 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 25? Jun 25 $999 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $999 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $999 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,012 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,998 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $426 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $6,846 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,998 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $425 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,998 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,998 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,700 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5,272 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,685 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,493 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,088 −$120 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,333 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,045 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? Jun 22 $3,058 −$23 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $872 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $4,372 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 22 $673 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $950 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $494 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,487 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,059 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $157 35m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $490 36m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 37m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $767 37m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $455 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $218 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $150 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $72 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,996 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $980 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,004 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,063 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,009 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,009 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $81 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $410 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $499 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $735 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $998 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $219 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,327.92 · official $8,328.13 (match) · 3500 history records