Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdea3…6794 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$134 (-21%) realized −$137 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$140
14 days−$140
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$131
sports 20% +$14
world 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -30.6%
≤30d 26 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -30.6%
≤90d 26 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -30.6%
all 26 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 35% -30.6%
10% -39.9% 35% -37.2%
15% -45.7% 31% -43.3%
20% -51.1% 27% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+73%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -93%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -22%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +58%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $46 +$11 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$28 -55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$31 +203%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$17 -56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$38 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $8 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 26h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes $2 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes $1 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $10 35h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes $10 35h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $22 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.13 · official $34.71 (match) · 49 history records