Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdea5…c77b other 315 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$418 (+5%) realized +$432 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%166W / 136L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$50
14 days−$21
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$318
sports 19% −$84
culture 16% +$230
world 13% −$51
politics 12% −$2
tech 4% +$19
finance 1% −$22
crypto 1% −$22
economics 0% +$3
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -23.9% -31.1% 35% 32% -17.6%
≤30d 69 -13.1% -21.3% 55% 41% -5.6%
≤90d 150 -8.6% -17.3% 56% 40% -9.8%
all 302 -3.6% -12.7% 55% 39% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 39% -5.2%
10% -21.1% 26% -14.3%
15% -28.7% 16% -22.6%
20% -35.7% 10% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$432
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses166 / 136
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)302 / 315
History coverage133d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June? No 77¢ 80¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 85¢ 84¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 62¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? No 77¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 81¢ 89¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump say "Regarded" in June? No 74¢ 51¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-31%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? No 88¢ 74¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 6 or more songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-95%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 70¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $72 +$27 +37%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +249%
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? Jun 18 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$15 +474%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 17 $28 +$6 +23%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Trump say "Interest rate" this week? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Trump say "Generation" this week? Jun 16 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$17 +33%
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 15 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 14 $45 −$7 -16%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 13 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $36 −$16 -44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $97 +$34 +35%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 09 $9 $0 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $35 +$1 +2%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Jun 09 $59 +$4 +7%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$26 -89%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 08 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +41%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 07 $65 +$32 +49%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 06 $22 −$16 -73%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $36 +$9 +24%
Will Trump say "Damn" this week? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 01 $31 +$15 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 BUY No 64¢ $16 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 1h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 63¢ $10 2h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 63¢ $16 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 12h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 12h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 15h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 70¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 70¢ $10 22h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 34h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 36h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 40h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 40h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 42h
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 6 or more songs in Billboard top 10 for week SELL Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 71¢ $21 47h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $42 47h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 6 or more songs in Billboard top 10 for week BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 6 or more songs in Billboard top 10 for week BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 6 or more songs in Billboard top 10 for week BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 65¢ $6 2d
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 6 or more songs in Billboard top 10 for week BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.81 · official $205.67 (match) · 1774 history records