Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdea8…532f crypto 15 markets active 10d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27 (-10%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$45
sports 19% +$54
weather 15% −$26
other 13% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -6.6% -15.5% 43% 36% -16.6%
≤90d 14 -6.6% -15.5% 43% 36% -16.6%
all 14 -6.6% -15.5% 43% 36% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 36% -16.6%
10% -23.5% 36% -24.6%
15% -30.9% 29% -31.9%
20% -37.7% 21% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $43 −$43 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $7 +$11 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$19 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $41 +$11 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 83¢ $43 10d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No $2 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $21 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $10 13d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 14d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $64 14d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records