Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xdea9…dffb crypto 133 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (192 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+2%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%85W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day192.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$18
other 7% +$2
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (192 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 34% -9.2%
≤30d 132 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 34% -9.2%
≤90d 132 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 34% -9.2%
all 132 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 34% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover192.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 34% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 20% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 14% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses85 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day192.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$17 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $43 +$24 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $69 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $59 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $84 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 538 history records