Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeaa…23e9 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$4
other 37% −$2
sports 5% +$4
politics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 0% -8.9%
all 31 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 6% -8.8%
10% -19.9% 3% -17.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $42 +$3 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $33 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $42 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $46 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $4 $0 +7%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -40%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 27 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 25 $4 $0 -6%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 25 $15 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 24 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $2 −$1 -75%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $31 $0 -0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $16 $0 +1%
Israel retaliates against Houthis by Friday? Mar 21 $16 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $19 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $25 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 18h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $43 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $32 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $10 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $10 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $32 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $42 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $46 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 49¢ $46 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $39 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $7 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records