Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xdead…7489 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%32W / 19L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$79
other 28% +$6
politics 5% +$1
sports 2% +$8
culture 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +53.5% +38.8% 73% 55% +23.5%
≤30d 11 +53.5% +38.8% 73% 55% +23.5%
≤90d 14 +38.0% +24.9% 71% 50% +16.4%
all 51 +10.3% -0.2% 63% 35% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 35% -4.2%
10% -9.7% 35% -13.3%
15% -18.5% 33% -21.7%
20% -26.5% 31% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses32 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage553d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 52¢ 65¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 51¢ 60¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$24 +233%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$27 +173%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$23 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$21 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$23 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 +$6 +208%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 13 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 30 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$29 +97%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$24 +79%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 16 $20 +$72 +362%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$25 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$21 +70%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 16 $20 +$29 +147%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 16 $20 +$18 +89%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 16 $30 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 16 $22 +$27 +122%
Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Mar 16 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$10 +99%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this w Jan 22 $19 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Heat Dec 01 $15 +$5 +35%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 01 $112 +$107 +96%
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? Nov 26 $14 $0 +3%
Will “A House of Dynamite” be the top global Netflix movie this week? Nov 10 $14 $0 +0%
Which party wins Virginia House of Delegates? Nov 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP? Sep 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Big Beautiful Bill cap gambling loss deductions? Jul 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the May 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 21 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $35 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $43 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $47 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $49 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $27 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 56d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY Astralis 71¢ $8 56d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 56d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 62d
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 101d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 101d
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $20 101d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.07 · official $57.96 · 121 history records