Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdead…8ee5 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$6
other 14% −$11
crypto 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 44% -18.1%
≤30d 9 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 44% -18.1%
≤90d 9 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 44% -18.1%
all 9 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 44% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 44% -18.1%
10% -36.0% 44% -25.9%
15% -42.2% 33% -33.1%
20% -47.8% 22% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -15%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.64 · official $73.64 · 17 history records