Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeaf…97bf politics 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,581 (-6%) realized −$1,581 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$887per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,176
7 days−$1,176
14 days−$1,176
30 days−$1,176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$1,384
world 29% +$558
politics 22% −$951
crypto 18% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -62.6% -66.2% 0% 0% -69.5%
≤30d 2 -62.6% -66.2% 0% 0% -69.5%
≤90d 2 -62.6% -66.2% 0% 0% -69.5%
all 30 -19.6% -27.3% 43% 30% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 30% -16.3%
10% -34.3% 20% -24.4%
15% -40.6% 17% -31.7%
20% -46.4% 17% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$794) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$269 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,581
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage638d
Avg bet$887
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $980 −$958 -98%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $794 −$218 -28%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jan 24 $500 +$82 +16%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Jan 08 $4,124 +$205 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 28 $4,735 +$1,056 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 21 $1,450 −$1,450 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Dec 20 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican? Dec 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Dec 20 $87 −$87 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 12 $380 +$430 +113%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in November? Nov 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Aug 20 $6,590 −$524 -8%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 07 $2,183 −$29 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 07 $500 +$6 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? Jul 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Jul 12 $668 −$104 -16%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 17 $1,000 +$569 +57%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 13 $450 +$384 +85%
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Biden pardon Trump? May 08 $41 −$1 -3%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? May 08 $697 +$68 +10%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $509 −$480 -94%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Feb 12 $50 +$94 +188%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 13 $100 −$8 -8%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1.0%? Dec 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump replace Hegseth with DeSantis by Friday? Dec 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Pete Hegseth nomination withdrawn by Friday? Dec 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Dec 04 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Dec 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $30 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $22 2h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $576 2h
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 44¢ $582 145d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes $606 172d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $197 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $3 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $3 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $2 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $9 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $3 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $6 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $13 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $3 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $3 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $5 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $86 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $3 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $86 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $1 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $3 179d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $0 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 594 history records