Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeb1…1d51 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
crypto 11% −$1
other 10% $0
politics 10% +$1
economics 8% $0
culture 4% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 22% 11% -8.6%
≤90d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 22% 11% -8.6%
all 26 -0.9% -10.3% 35% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 8% -9.1%
10% -18.9% 4% -17.8%
15% -26.7% 4% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage404d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 41¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $44 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $47 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $8 +$3 +40%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30? May 30 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down in May? May 30 $20 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 29 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on May 27? May 28 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? May 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 27 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 18 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 15 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $32 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $20 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $13 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $13 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $44 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $2 36h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $48 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $48 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $47 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $36 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $8 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $8 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records