Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DE 0xdeb2…9aa8 crypto 786 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,858 (+0%) realized +$4,858 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%731W / 55L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,275per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$683
7 days+$1,085
14 days+$1,196
30 days+$1,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,245
crypto 39% +$501
politics 9% +$209
sports 6% +$662
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 382 -4.4% -13.5% 94% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 786 -4.6% -13.7% 93% 0% -9.3%
all 786 -4.6% -13.7% 93% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 0% -9.3%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,644) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×19.75 per $1 lost it wins $19.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,858
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses731 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)786 / 786
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$1,275
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 786 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,157 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,252 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2,697 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $942 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $171 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3,321 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $48 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9,801 +$99 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9,702 +$98 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $9,790 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,980 +$20 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $489 +$5 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8,872 +$228 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9,306 +$94 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1,386 +$14 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,960 +$39 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $126 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,575 +$25 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,600 +$16 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $757 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3,451 +$35 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3,996 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $5,940 +$60 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $758 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2,225 +$22 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $603 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $53 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $256 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1,785 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1,255 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $625 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 100¢ $2,808 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records