Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeb4…9854 sports 979 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,360 (+10%) realized +$2,389 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate67%656W / 320L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$46
14 days−$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,234
other 10% +$44
world 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 14% -16.5%
≤30d 36 +9.5% -0.9% 72% 33% -7.2%
≤90d 195 +4.2% -5.7% 63% 35% -11.9%
all 976 +5.8% -4.2% 67% 26% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 26% -5.5%
10% -13.4% 22% -14.5%
15% -21.8% 19% -22.8%
20% -29.4% 16% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$2,389
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses656 / 320
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)976 / 979
History coverage210d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 976 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Corners Over 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals Yes 99¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+96%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 98¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $135 −$14 -11%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $28 +$4 +14%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $55 +$4 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$7 +325%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $15 +$11 +74%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $63 +$1 +1%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 25 $12 −$1 -12%
Michelsen vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 May 25 $6 +$4 +70%
Kalinina vs. Bondar: Match O/U 23.5 May 25 $12 +$9 +73%
Kraus vs. Bencic: Match O/U 21.5 May 25 $15 +$11 +73%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Galorys (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs May 25 $15 +$20 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 25 $17 +$23 +135%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoff May 25 $23 +$16 +70%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship P May 25 $20 +$20 +97%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. CD Tolima: O/U 1.5 May 25 $71 +$35 +50%
Blaublitz Akita vs. Tochigi City FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Jamshedpur FC vs. Odisha FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
CA Boston River vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 3.5 May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5 May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship May 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud: O/U 2.5 May 18 $18 −$4 -20%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-15? May 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Map Handicap: VSC (-1.5) vs BESTIA Academy (+1.5) May 18 $7 +$5 +70%
Spread: FBC Melgar (-1.5) May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5 May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Club Always Ready vs. Club The Strongest: O/U 3.5 May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús: O/U 2.5 May 13 $18 −$3 -14%
Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5) May 11 $79 −$67 -86%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? May 11 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $21 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage May 11 $18 +$20 +109%
Konyaspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5 May 11 $15 +$38 +250%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $29 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $5 1h
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $30 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 100¢ $80 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 74¢ $30 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 82¢ $25 29h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 96¢ $30 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 96¢ $40 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 96¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 97¢ $40 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $30 5d
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals BUY Yes 97¢ $40 5d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $15 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $25 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $30 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $2 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 99¢ $30 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 98¢ $25 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $25 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $15 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $63 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.98 · official $68.98 (match) · 2319 history records