Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeb5…8d6f world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 25% $0
politics 15% −$2
crypto 6% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 47 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $28 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $63 $0 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $21 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $121 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $29 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will 'LEveL' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 24 $1 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Gra May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 25 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 24 $12 $0 +2%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Mar 23 $15 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $29 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $24 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $24 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $29 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.62 · official $29.62 (match) · 157 history records