Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeb7…44bf world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$4
other 27% +$9
politics 9% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
weather 4% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -10.7%
all 38 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 3% -8.7%
10% -12.5% 3% -17.4%
15% -21.0% 3% -25.4%
20% -28.7% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $33 −$5 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 07 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Apr 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Mar 29 $26 $0 -0%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on March 28? Mar 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 28 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $25 −$1 -4%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $5 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 22 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 16 $3 +$9 +291%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $36 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $18 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $18 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records