Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeb9…bad0 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$104 (+22%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%6W / 16L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +25.4% +13.5% 27% 27% -3.8%
≤30d 22 +25.4% +13.5% 27% 27% -3.8%
≤90d 22 +25.4% +13.5% 27% 27% -3.8%
all 22 +25.4% +13.5% 27% 27% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.5% 27% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here +2.6% 27% -13.0%
15% -7.3% 27% -21.4%
20% -16.4% 18% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$15 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses6 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$6 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$39 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $75 −$71 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $76 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$41 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$186 +1176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records